2012年3月1日星期四

The United States is not inflation print ticket why

Since I posted a "number loose, the appreciation of the renminbi and inflation" later, a recurring problem is: why the United States printed ticket, but the United States does not have inflation? If you want to use a word answer, that is: the United States is not print ticket no inflation, the thing is, in turn, the United States because of fear of deflation, to begin to seal the ticket. In other words, if the fed had not print ticket, the price of the United States is not now this level,NBA Jerseys but will be more low, not only is the price, also contain asset prices, such as housing prices. As for price lower why is bad, I've written the deflation fierce in tiger ", also put in my new book, a world: GuoKai sand economics reading notes ", here will not repeat. (by the way, I was told, a few big break goods web site, including dangdang excellence and next week, there will be a book should be). Of course, this thing can speak a little too long. China currency hair hair, and not all the prices are soaring, and not all parts of the house prices are soaring. Some things prices shot up, a lot of things by standing still. Some city prices soaring, some city house prices no big still. The people's bank do open market operations are in Shanghai, but not Shanghai is inflation special the worst-hit areas. If you cut the federal reserve printing money, in a global perspective, that is, the fed print money is not always can cause the inflation, the inflation can be in the world of any a corner. The federal reserve printing tickets caused problem is, most of the money and not go to America last and the real economy, if really flow, the American economy would want a lot better. From my reading look, the most of the economists on the attitude of the loose from mild amount to support strongly against, in other words, though the quantity the most active of loose supporters, and just think that number for the U.S. economy can loose to moderate role, and opponents, it is usually think that number in the short term, loose will not work (or had little effect), in the long run, will have the hazards. The federal reserve printing tickets go where? A viewpoint, and I agree, it is these money to flow to the emerging market countries. Now the world economy as long as a little bit of fair emerging market economy, almost without exception are in the face of the waters of the capital inflows, or use familiar language, hot money inflows. Here is whether you fixed exchange rate, whether you're commodity exporters, no matter you in which states, no matter you are ShunChaGuo or deficit countries, you from Brazil, to South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, to India, to Egypt, to South Africa, turn around, and then to Mexico, all in the face of the different degrees of the scale of capital inflows surges. But I have to declare, and not all the people can disagree with this point of view, at least the United States government and the federal reserve will not agree. It is not, because the United States make quantity loose, other countries can do? Back to economics ABC, this is why Mr Friedman praise highly the cause of the floating exchange rate. In theory, fully floating exchange rate, can counter the influence of any U.S. monetary policy, so that the domestic inflation by their own monetary policy decisions. In practice, the prediction is not always correct, is not all is correct, but it is certainly not wrong. China's fixed exchange rate system, plus a already very weak capital controls (if strong, that people's bank interest rates do not? Inflation, plus 5. 27, tube with what interest?) , is in the part of the import of American monetary policy--the United States seal, we also follow to print. Low interest rates in the United States, we also follow cheap. The somebody else is afraid of deflation to print just cheap, we all inflation, also still with low interest rates in print. Finally,New Era Hats if the United States does not have inflation, does that mean the buying power of the dollar is no down? This matter, as a take dollars salary, and then going to all over the world on business people, have the buying power of the dollar down, I most empathy. I have been to most of the place, I from the ATM out of local currency are in less, and then take out money can buy things also in less. Two years ago the crisis peak, also is the appreciation of us short, I go on a business trip, travel allowance flower all take off. Now business, to some cities, such as Beijing (but not only Beijing, including many countries city), the careful enough to spend. Qiao jiangnan two people literally eat have to- You may feel Beijing is expensive, but you somehow earn or RMB. I came to Beijing to go to more can't spend money, because I makes dollars. Which is, Chinese people to the United States, find that the yuan into us dollars in the United States after the purchasing power of the super, a few years ago, this kind of feeling can not so strong (of course so, a few years ago, the yuan to the dollar is, now is 6.6:1. Over the past few years China's inflation is higher than in the United States). To buy the same thing is concerned, the purchasing power of the yuan against the dollar in really enhanced. Please note that this is relative, and not saying in absolute terms, the purchasing power of the RMB is growing. Well, so much.

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