2012年3月2日星期五

According to the exchange rate of RMB war played up

A global currency war seems to be launched, main battlefield, of course, is the value of the yuan. Following the September 24, the United States house of representatives ways and means committee through the exchange rate reform to promote fair trade act in less than one week after, September 29,, the house of representatives in a disciplined by a vote of 348 to 79 of the overwhelming the results through the law. This is a main aimed at China lost beauty impose punitive tariffs on goods bill,NHL Jerseys needless to say, if the bill was eventually through, will in the two world between the first and second economy caused a "nuclear weapons grade" trade war, and then to is slow and difficult in the revival of the whole world economy caused by a series of uncounted devastating blow. This is the media recently the deluge of about "exchange rate war" reports the main background, is also analyzed the basic point of many comments. But, from the internal recent political game signal to see, the severe, but for the exchange rate of RMB and ensuing war inevitable will trade war may still is only a potential, rather than the sword has drawn. First, the house of representatives passed legislation allowing the only authorized (rather than forced) the United States government to "undervalued currency country" punitive duties on high; Second, the bill would also shall obtain approval of the senate, and finally by President Obama to be formally signed the law, and that the two ways of across the threshold outlook is not so do-or-die. Because the senate is unlikely in the midterm elections to vote before it and, according to the poll, on November 2, days at the mid-term elections, always support free trade republican will rend the most seats from the Democrats. Now even can't assert in mid-term elections after lawmakers together again, whether or not the senate still have the chance to vote on the bill. The bad news is, on September 29 vote in the house, bill won two joint support the party. The New York times reports of 29 points out, in republican Congressman rarely on the economy with democratic Congressman right now, there are 99 republican senator (accounted for the party members most) voted to support the bill, this is "very unusual". "That highlights the U.S. lawmakers about China's trade practices have long the hair-trigger disappointed, that they face the mid-term elections to the us recovery and will still shambling sensitive." This is also for over ten years the United States senate has repeatedly threatened after threat, according to one of China's powerful trade sanctions bill through congress for the first time. In fact, compared with the New York democratic senator chuck? Schumer and south Carolina republican senator Lin plug? Graham for many years in the senate advocacy proposal, the house of representatives recently passed legislation to narrow the range, strength also ease many. Their proposal is: for all Chinese imports fully 27.5% across-the-board levy--this apparent violation of the world trade organization (WTO) regulation, congress usually don't take the risk. And if the November mid-term elections republicans control the house again and even so, according to media reports, Michigan republican senator David? Kemp as supervision of the ways and means committee such affairs of the President. Although kemp 29 September to the house of representatives voted for the bill, but he has made it clear that, the exchange rate is not a priority for the legislation he the list, so the proposal is likely to finally dropped. Besides, even many Democrats, they played the RMB exchange rate card, the true goal but is for mid-term elections for votes, once the election over, it's hard to say they will continue to keep long-term interest in this. So, the conservative American traditional foundation, a researcher think: "it seems we from real legislation and a step closer, but in fact are not." Ten thousand steps back, said even if it in the United States all the way through, but if the content and the world trade organization conflict of laws and regulations, the real implementation is likely to rise by considerable constraints. So far, Obama has the government did not express support the bill mean. The White House is on October 7, vaguely said, the house of representatives passed the bill "reveal the United States are the two parties of China's exchange rate position worried." On the day of the regular news briefing, the White House press secretary gibbs said, the U.S. government still think China must take action and reassure international society to its deliberately undervalued exchange rate to jumpstart export concerns. Nevertheless, he "if the bill passed by the senate,MLB hats Obama for President will be no sign that the effective" this core problem refused to comment. For a long time now, China's domestic general public opinion is that the United States administration and the legislature in the RMB exchange rate is on the conscious duet. But understand the U.S. political system should be very clear, even if is really "coaxes the White House, congress, coerces", also can only be a tacit understanding, such as China may not be conscious "unified caliber, coordination combat". Therefore, from the point of view of the political reality comprehensive evaluation, we can conclude that the general conclusion: the bill became strong enough of the real, the most realistic function, is to provide for the White House and a pressure on China's tools. In fact, before the finance minister cover Turner have tried to use the power of congress to Chinese government pressure to let its currency rise; The speaker of the house, pelosi has said publicly, this bill will increase in China's negotiations with Obama when chip. Of course, even so, we also can't potential "exchange rate war" lightly, especially in more and more countries started to intervene in their exchange rates, a kind of our policy of filled with loving atmosphere diffuses the world under the grim situation.

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