South Korea into stagflation impact east Asia economic rim

In the world's focused attention on the debt crisis in Europe, east Asia economic situation is not optimistic. According to the bank of Korea said the latest forecast, South Korea's economy has been in recession, low growth and high prices of stagflation phenomenon may last until at least the first half of next year. The bank of Korea concerns chief introduction said: "in the first half of next year's consumer price ShangZhangLv likely will be slightly lower than the second half of this year,baseball hats but will still be held in a higher level. Here said the high level, it is to point to 3.5% than the central bank target." Renowned financial critics leaves wingceltis have expressed, South Korea economic crisis shows that Asia is beginning to show stagflation. This or will to east Asia economic rim brings a strong impact. "High inflation, low growth" has a 2011 years South Korea economic growth is a is slowing process. According to the bank of Korea data released by the first quarter of this year South Korea real gross domestic product grew 4.2%, second quarter and the growth rate of the third quarter were 3.4% for both. Accordingly, according to 2011 South Korea economic growth rate will hard to reach 4%. In 2010, in the proactive fiscal policy and the loose monetary policy to promote, South Korea robust economic recovery, realized the high 6.2%. Compared with the 2011 years of economic growth obviously atrophy. Analyzed that, its main shown in two aspects: one is the export growth dropped. Export growth in August record a 25.9% record, but then it suddenly dropped in September to 18.8% in October to 9.3% more, this is in November 2009 after the first double-digit export growth dropped to below. 2 it is hard to expand domestic demand. Three quarters of South Korea private consumption year-on-year growth of only 2.2%, less than 3% of the level in the second quarter. Construction investment has 18 consecutive months keep negative growth. Three quarters of the equipment investment increased only 1.4%, significantly less than the 7.5% in the second quarter. With economic growth rate falling instead, the first three quarters in 2011 South Korea rise has been high prices. The first quarter of this year the consumer price ShangZhangLv is 4.5%, and the second quarter was 4.2%, 4.8% in the third quarter. According to many Banks, investment agency forecast, the price ShangZhangLv in Korea this year will reach 4.4%. This not only more than 4% of the south Korean government set the price target, will also be more than South Korea this year's economic growth levels. Have economists had forecast with was concerned, the south Korean economy will enter a high inflation, low growth of so-called "stagflation period". South Korea bureau announced last week, October CPI by annual growth rate of 3.9%, the lowest for 10 months. But the above the central bank chief said: "next year's economic growth rate in May not be too low, because in the end of this year will be the economy or to the first half of next year. But low rebound after even so, the growth rate in the first half of next year also won't have too much better." The first half of next year will be particularly difficult or external economic environment change is caused by South Korea this year economic growth is the main reason for the decline. Leaf wingceltis says, the Middle East, north Africa situation is volatile Japanese earthquake are exported to Korea events such as the impact, the national credit rating by European sovereign debt crisis worse, to South Korea also form the larger economic impact. South Korea has more than a month for CPI than the central bank target of 4% limit. To combat inflation, the bank of Korea announced raised benchmark interest rates after 25 basis points, to 3.25%, this is the third time this year to raise rates. The us dollar interest rates make won rising high, the won so far this year the dollar has risen to 4% has been expanding, it is surely the south Korean economy to export generated a challenge. South Korea hanyang university professor river a handsome think: "for foreign economic situation worse, South Korea's exports in the future will not be ideal. The south Korean government is likely to take steps to keep down. So the next six months the won the prices will remain high levels." Economic outlook for next year, the south Korean government and economic research is very cautious. Most thought that, in the short term is difficult to solve the credit crisis and the American economic downturn remain risk, South Korea's economic growth next year is hard to more than 4%, estimates that the economic situation in the first half of next year will be particularly difficult. South Korea Treasury in recently published macro economic report, the direction of economic operation next year is to maintain the stability of the macroeconomic policy, for the future development of the savings strength. East Asian economy will slow down slowly s news related to the Asian development bank previously published the study think, east Asian emerging economies economy will continue to enjoy strong growth, but food, oil and commodity prices and monetary policy tightening of the possibility of future economic growth are a risk. In addition, because of the strong demand lead to global commodity and food prices are rising, and countries may be more than inflation goals. The adb is expected, the developed countries of the downturn in economic situation and east Asia countries and areas of influence for inflation, east Asia economic growth in 2010 after years after the backlash,mlb jerseys will this year and 2012, slow down slowly. The international monetary fund (IMF) vice President after ZhuMin is warned that emerging markets need to prevent the emergence of stagflation situation. ZhuMin said, emerging market countries in the past two years new loan ratio is too high, the excessive loans and the quality of the assets has a lot of potential risks. "If now developed countries need the government to take decisive action to prevent the possibility of crisis, so emerging economies and developing countries must now take measures to prevent stagflation crisis." ZhuMin said.

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