2012年2月29日星期三

Limit to how to buy into a higher prices

The source of the capital "limit to buy," the national dozens of city suit, is this real estate prices down in the regulation's ace in the hole. Cool administration immediate, jinghu and other leading cities plunged more than fifty percent, the volume of commodity house last week. Volume of the cane ten percent, clinch a deal valence wrestling slipped, and soon. Just, "limit buy to make" can not only a cut of the purchase price discount axe crutches, also can be in the future house prices horse ass take a whip. Don't believe it? We'll see about that. "Limit to buy to make" dozen who? To make investment in Beijing is the property of shanxi coal boss? Or in the struggle to make enough of the "north drifted down? Obviously,MLB hats if only restrain investment or the speculative demand, why not stick with credit and revenue is more market-oriented tools, what with administrative colour is "limit buy", wrong from emerging middle class of death "just need to"? Good, market-oriented tools is not null and void, but the effect to come slowly. Why are anxious to quick effect? Eyes bright person, "limit buy to make" the camera of choice "machine", it is the short term "d stable" need. Therefore, it is not so much of safeguarding the real estate market of the long-term health of rubbing medicine, than say d steady social ease the contradiction of fierce laxatives. Who will eat laxatives, even for a year two load? Now that the goal is to chase short-term effect, "limit to buy" can be adjusted at any time even moved. "Limit to buy to make" if strictly carry out more than six months, house prices will appear markedly drop, not drop 10%, but 30%. If 30%, used for "d stable" "limit to buy," may not be "d firm" in the name of the sweeping the floor to go out? Concerns not only from the can't restrain demand, the more from increasing the supply of the weak. Security room, five years to build 37 million sets. What proportion of shantytown transformation? Not released. Now how much stock? Not released. Lease type security room (low-cost housing, and rent) design construction, supporting facilities, maintenance management, whether ask for tenants opinions of the plan? No. See private funds whether participation? No. Such security room really can satisfy the urban poverty personnel and the housing needs of emerging middle class? In other words, 37 million sets of security room really can form an effective demand? China has its own family as high as 80% occupancy rate. Many Chinese is not no room, but didn't meet his dream, living quality has better housing. Live in low-cost housing or public rental, whether also still looking forward to have higher quality commodity house? In the land supply plan not sharply increase and enforcement show weak, 37 million sets of security open built means that, in the future five years commodity house land supply may cut. Two years later, commodity house prices would be pushed up again? 2007 years later, the shrinking of land supply (2010 years to improve), to some extent, price is rising house prices rising and increasing a big push factor. The years of SuLiang supply situation still exists. The following figure display a strange circulation, 2004 years later, for two years after the land supply cut, there will be a commodity house prices, a happen by the end of 2006 to 2007, and one in the end of 2009 to 2010. The next time? In 2011, in 2012 commodity house land supply if duly reduction, 2013 years of revenge rebound but period. Hong Kong recently adopt an adjustment and control policies: announced increase for stable market expectations. February 24,, the Hong Kong government announced the 2011 to 2012 from the annual Hong Kong plan. Hong Kong development council of the hkie E month, says the government will hold on to increase land supply this year, not by the more serious policy issued to control prices. The policy effect, although still stay on after, but this seemingly hit Hong Kong real estate market key: land monopoly, long-term government SuLiang raised the price. Note in the image above, and after 2009, if the red curve (purchase land area of growth) can ultimately drive green curve (complete land development area of growth) climb, the future trend of house prices stabilise or cut but period. But the point is, in the new "limit to buy to make", this year of land market of hot and cold, most attention. If in the next two years the land market shock (policy lasts, the possibility is very large), the actual amount for far below the 2010 level,NFL Jerseys then 2013 commodity house prices appear rebound might retaliate nightmare come true. The future real variable is, huge security room system become the heavy financial burden of local government and poor management and maintenance, whether to eventually will be forced to "to rent for sale" and returned to commodity house track?

see more:Baidu mingmen
Long-term short-term problems

没有评论:

发表评论