RMB internationalization is not so optimistic

On June 25, held in Beijing "2011 China and global financial risk BBS", released simultaneously: China and the global financial risk reports "and so on the research results. Wuhan economic and management of university, vice President of the college professor YeYongGang speech think, facing the present situation of the domestic and international, in order to make China continue to stable and healthy development, can promote global international monetary system reform, don't let in suits and leather shoes are money spinner, any dead beat. Steadily RMB internationalization, let the yuan can truly stand tall YaoGanZi, facing the world talk. Professor YeYongGang that make some sense,baseball hats but also the present domestic to discuss the topic of financial when mainstream voice. Almost a year, RMB internationalization this theme is often in all kinds of seminars and BBS, especially in 2010 is called "RMB internationalization first year of RMB internationalization" is even more so. Although this year RMB internationalization process obvious into "speed" stage, but in the surface of the noise on the back, the current RMB internationalization and China's exchange-rate policy between reform should not be neglected relationship, did not get enough attention. Look back at this years RMB internationalization way course, we find that, to achieve the desired goals, and is not people imagination of so simple. Because this is a major project, the RMB internationalization in the realization of the earlier, there may be some losses, or to make some "fees". But at the moment, the yuan trade settlement the rapid development, the main factors driving to the appreciation of the renminbi is overseas, as expected, international finance, investors can take this arbitrage. It also explains why the yuan trade settlement, the vast majority are import trade settlement output RMB, not export trade settlement backflow RMB. Can say, the yuan is only in his own field do it can do, RMB internationalization need bilateral hold, is to both sides are willing to. If go to China and the United States cooperation, the United States is not willing to hold the yuan, also in Europe and China may not willing to cooperate. So the role of China is not his decision, but a bilateral problem. Have analysis, it failed to make the yuan convertible is the important factor of influence of RMB internationalization. Realize the benefits of RMB internationalization must is to set up the yuan freely convertible system after, as a possible results, not a necessity. Not the yuan freely convertible premise, then these benefits but be wishful thinking. The yuan international the equilibrium of supply and demand depends on the number of foreign demand, not domestic intend to supply. In the free exchange conditions, the exchange rate of the yuan nominally formulated by the Chinese government, but in fact is subject to the requirements of foreign influence. When foreign demand decreases, the RMB exchange rate fell. The us in the position in the international monetary system is irreplaceable, in such a case, the yuan to be completely internationalization, to realize the project and capital projects often convertibility, and at the same time must in the international reserve currency occupy a certain proportion, such as 8% or 10%. However, the RMB internationalization and fully convertible, faced with some need to crack problems. One is that the economy is more serious structural contradiction there. For example consumption ratio is low, the high proportion of investment, investment high proportion necessarily causes excess capacity. Now the government insists that the domestic economic transformation, will make consumption share of total demand to two-thirds, establish the foundation of steady economic growth. 2 it is new and high technology, the operation efficiency of national economy to have increased greatly, not overly dependent on resource consumption and the damage to the environment. So, RMB internationalization must is based on the sustainable development of economy in China on the basis of. Although in recent years the yuan international status has been on the rise, some often project has achieved freely convertible. For example in the international financial crisis since, China's central bank and South Korea,NBA Jerseys Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, belarus, Indonesia, Argentina, Iceland, Singapore, New Zealand and other countries and regions signed nine local currency swap agreement, its total volume has reached 828.5 billion yuan RMB, the RMB for cross-border settlement provides financial support. For this reason, some optimistic that China and other countries in local currency swap, and then realize the RMB internationalization. It is a one-sided understanding. Although China and some countries or currency swap agreement signed by the city, but, this and real sense of a convertible currency still have a large gap. In other words, realize the currency swaps, can only say that to achieve the goal of RMB internationalization out of a small step, in no RMB convertible, under the premise of RMB to regional and also in the short term is difficult to achieve, at least now we still cannot see the schedule of a truly international. Therefore, at present the RMB internationalization and not so optimistic, because the real international monetary there can be only one, and is in world trade is in control of that nation status to the currency. The euro and yen actually are lessons drawn from others' mistakes, China can be regarded as a model. Now, we still can't define the role of the yuan, can only say that the future for China to gradually change to dollars as the leading international monetary pattern, in this process, the yuan should play a bigger role. In the short term, RMB internationalization is still in its infancy, can say the direction in which is correct.

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