South Korea into stagflation impact east Asia economic rim

In the world's focused attention on the debt crisis in Europe, east Asia economic situation is not optimistic. According to the bank of Korea said the latest forecast, South Korea's economy has been in recession, low growth and high prices of stagflation phenomenon may last until at least the first half of next year. The bank of Korea concerns chief introduction said: "in the first half of next year's consumer price ShangZhangLv likely will be slightly lower than the second half of this year,baseball hats but will still be held in a higher level. Here said the high level, it is to point to 3.5% than the central bank target." Renowned financial critics leaves wingceltis have expressed, South Korea economic crisis shows that Asia is beginning to show stagflation. This or will to east Asia economic rim brings a strong impact. "High inflation, low growth" has a 2011 years South Korea economic growth is a is slowing process. According to the bank of Korea data released by the first quarter of this year South Korea real gross domestic product grew 4.2%, second quarter and the growth rate of the third quarter were 3.4% for both. Accordingly, according to 2011 South Korea economic growth rate will hard to reach 4%. In 2010, in the proactive fiscal policy and the loose monetary policy to promote, South Korea robust economic recovery, realized the high 6.2%. Compared with the 2011 years of economic growth obviously atrophy. Analyzed that, its main shown in two aspects: one is the export growth dropped. Export growth in August record a 25.9% record, but then it suddenly dropped in September to 18.8% in October to 9.3% more, this is in November 2009 after the first double-digit export growth dropped to below. 2 it is hard to expand domestic demand. Three quarters of South Korea private consumption year-on-year growth of only 2.2%, less than 3% of the level in the second quarter. Construction investment has 18 consecutive months keep negative growth. Three quarters of the equipment investment increased only 1.4%, significantly less than the 7.5% in the second quarter. With economic growth rate falling instead, the first three quarters in 2011 South Korea rise has been high prices. The first quarter of this year the consumer price ShangZhangLv is 4.5%, and the second quarter was 4.2%, 4.8% in the third quarter. According to many Banks, investment agency forecast, the price ShangZhangLv in Korea this year will reach 4.4%. This not only more than 4% of the south Korean government set the price target, will also be more than South Korea this year's economic growth levels. Have economists had forecast with was concerned, the south Korean economy will enter a high inflation, low growth of so-called "stagflation period". South Korea bureau announced last week, October CPI by annual growth rate of 3.9%, the lowest for 10 months. But the above the central bank chief said: "next year's economic growth rate in May not be too low, because in the end of this year will be the economy or to the first half of next year. But low rebound after even so, the growth rate in the first half of next year also won't have too much better." The first half of next year will be particularly difficult or external economic environment change is caused by South Korea this year economic growth is the main reason for the decline. Leaf wingceltis says, the Middle East, north Africa situation is volatile Japanese earthquake are exported to Korea events such as the impact, the national credit rating by European sovereign debt crisis worse, to South Korea also form the larger economic impact. South Korea has more than a month for CPI than the central bank target of 4% limit. To combat inflation, the bank of Korea announced raised benchmark interest rates after 25 basis points, to 3.25%, this is the third time this year to raise rates. The us dollar interest rates make won rising high, the won so far this year the dollar has risen to 4% has been expanding, it is surely the south Korean economy to export generated a challenge. South Korea hanyang university professor river a handsome think: "for foreign economic situation worse, South Korea's exports in the future will not be ideal. The south Korean government is likely to take steps to keep down. So the next six months the won the prices will remain high levels." Economic outlook for next year, the south Korean government and economic research is very cautious. Most thought that, in the short term is difficult to solve the credit crisis and the American economic downturn remain risk, South Korea's economic growth next year is hard to more than 4%, estimates that the economic situation in the first half of next year will be particularly difficult. South Korea Treasury in recently published macro economic report, the direction of economic operation next year is to maintain the stability of the macroeconomic policy, for the future development of the savings strength. East Asian economy will slow down slowly s news related to the Asian development bank previously published the study think, east Asian emerging economies economy will continue to enjoy strong growth, but food, oil and commodity prices and monetary policy tightening of the possibility of future economic growth are a risk. In addition, because of the strong demand lead to global commodity and food prices are rising, and countries may be more than inflation goals. The adb is expected, the developed countries of the downturn in economic situation and east Asia countries and areas of influence for inflation, east Asia economic growth in 2010 after years after the backlash,mlb jerseys will this year and 2012, slow down slowly. The international monetary fund (IMF) vice President after ZhuMin is warned that emerging markets need to prevent the emergence of stagflation situation. ZhuMin said, emerging market countries in the past two years new loan ratio is too high, the excessive loans and the quality of the assets has a lot of potential risks. "If now developed countries need the government to take decisive action to prevent the possibility of crisis, so emerging economies and developing countries must now take measures to prevent stagflation crisis." ZhuMin said.

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The central bank increased global store adjustment to reduce the euro dollar

Abstract: according to the international monetary fund (IMF) by the official foreign exchange reserve currency composition "quarterly report, global foreign exchange reserves, in the second quarter of proportion by dollar rose to 60.3% in the third quarter of 61.7%. And the euro accounted for more than 26.7% of the second quarter by drops to 25.7%. According to the international monetary fund (the Po) (IMF) by the official foreign exchange reserve currency composition "quarterly report, global foreign exchange reserves, in the second quarter of proportion by dollar rose to 60.3% in the third quarter of 61.7%. And the euro accounted for more than 26.7% of the second quarter by drops to 25.7%. Says the report, the central bank reserves for the third quarter of the scale of $10.17 trillion, higher than at the end of the first half of 10.08 trillion dollars. During the third quarter,cheap oakley sunglasses the global central Banks dollar reserve of $3.36 trillion, a nearly 2% increase in the second quarter. The third quarter dollar assets in the proportion of foreign exchange reserves over the same period increased 7.5%. As the debt crisis continued to worsen, central Banks in the euro reserves to reduce demand. The report shows that during the third quarter of global central bank euro reserves fell to $1.4 trillion, the second quarter was $1.45 trillion. IM F data is divided into two parts: the first part of IMF each member central bank announced publicly distribution of foreign exchange reserves, the second for undistributed foreign exchange reserves, the latter for including the IM F held by members of the foreign exchange reserves and has not been made public foreign exchange reserves. Even though the us financial condition is anxious, and last August 5, loss of its A A A top sovereignty letter review, but as the dollar assets of the global liquidity is the most extensive assets, its reserve status is still not affected,wholesale sunglasses is still one of the world's favored reserve currency. Harry brown brothers) foreign exchange department supervisor chandler said, for the dollar, despite the debate, but the dollar as the global reserve currency is still the main position without controversy.

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The fed will be published for the first time to interest rate expectations

The federal open market committee (Fed) said yesterday, 24 January ~ 25 member of the interest rates for the first time in the meeting of the federal funds rate by the expected. Released yesterday 3 December meeting records show that warrant,snapback hats the FOMC "participants from the start of the next meeting decided to release them to the federal funds rate to expectations". And in the quarter in the estimates are the first four seasons in addition to this fiscal year and the next few years of interest rate expectations, but also will be given to the expected long-term interest rates. A few members said, will be a very low interest rates to the middle of 2013 that may need to be adjusted. Some members think since the United States economic outlook, in the more recent longer of stay at level is not suitable for loose. Many members think may need more stimulus measures. The minutes of the meeting said: "the fed officials issued by the overall identity and strategies of the long-term goal statement may help, but some members issued detailed enough concern goals and strategies of the statement, the committee will be difficult in January meeting on consideration of the modified goals and strategies of the statement issued by the proposal." The institute for supply management announced on Tuesday,nba jerseys the United States December manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from the November rose to 53.9 52.7. After accept economists expected, the United States manufacturing PMI in December will rise to 53.5, the data is located in more than 50 shows that manufacturing expansion. In addition, the United States November construction spending months has increased 1.2%, accept economists expected to grow 0.3%.

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The oldest Swiss bank was charged with supporting American citizens tax evasion

The U.S. justice department 2, Sue Switzerland announced the oldest private bank wei green bank in connection with the United States citizens collusion, conceal tax related assets. This is the U.S. government for the first time in this crime suing a foreign bank. The justice department said in a statement, headquartered in Switzerland in the wei of st gallen in overseas bank green though no branch, but through the American Stanford, Connecticut, ubs ag branch set up a bank account in the united engaged in asset management, private investment, and other financial business. Between 2008 and 2009, ubs,New Era Hats for alleged tax evasion is in the United States the tax department investigation, wei green bank took the opportunity to win over the escape from ubs us customers. In December 2010, the assets management in the wei green bank as high as $25 billion, of which did not press the laws of the United States declared to the tax authorities tax related assets of $1.2 billion. Earlier last month, the United States justice department sued the bank's three customer manager, suspected of helping American taxpayers also on tax evasion. This case will be 10 days in the trial. If the convicted, wei green bank could face a maximum 500000 dollar fine, three customer manager may be facing the top five years imprisonment and a $250000 fine. But because they live in Switzerland,Cheap sunglasses at present has not been arrested. As the government on a tight budget, in recent years the United States against offshore tax department to press forward with the behavior of tax evasion. According to the laws of the United States, the United States citizens in overseas bank accounts in a year if any time capital more than $10000, you'll have to pay the tax department within the United States declare.

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The United States January the unemployment rate fell to 8.3% in close to three new lows

The United States January 243000 jobs, and nine months high; But the United States employment market is still not out of recession, jobs less than 4 years ago 5.6 million [money one 】 (MarketWatch-Jeffry Bartash) the U.S. government on January employment report showed that American companies to hire number nine months and the highest level since, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in nearly three years. The labor department on Friday (February 3) released report shows that the United States January 243000 jobs, each economic sectors increased total employment, the unemployment rate fell to 8.3%. This is since April 2011 total employment increase since the most of the time, further proof that the American economy in the summer of 2011 after the downturn began gradually recovery.NFL hats The United States in the past five months increased every month on average 183000 employment posts. The increase of the employment almost involve in every sector of the economy. Manufacturing and construction, professional services, retail, medical and healthcare industry and catering hotel industry will be the increase of employment. The results of the published far better than Wall Street expected. For example, MarketWatch survey data for the prediction results, the United States January new employment according to season after adjustment for 121000, the unemployment rate is 8.5%. Investors reacted positively to this good news. The dow Jones industrial average index closed at a record high since more than four years. "Of course it was a huge surprise," BMO Capital Markets (BMO Capital Markets) senior analyst Lee (Jennifer Lee) think, "the employment increase the industry all involved." Are focusing on November's presidential election Obama governments also feel more exciting news. The reduction of unemployment rate increase for Obama in the second round of voting the possibility of winning. According to the online prediction website Intrade data show that Obama has the possibility of second term up 2.2% to 56.8%. Obama said Friday: "are accelerating economic recovery." Republicans still think the President of the policy has led to 2007 to 2009 a weak economic recovery. "We can do better." Romney, Mitt Romney), the Obama potential final opponents said. The influence of the data correction as part of the report, the department also released the past 21 months benchmark annual employment data. The latest data show the adjustment of the 2011 jobs from the original estimate of 1.64 million rose to 1.82 million. In December of 2011 jobs from 200000 rise to 203000, jobs in November from 100000 rise to 157000. Some economists warned that because of the labor force, is the size and other key benchmark data adjustment, not to January employment report do too much reading. In some areas the adjustment of data involved five years ago. They also point out that January the abnormal weather warming may promote the construction of this kind of industrial areas of employment levels. Construction company in December 2011 and January 2012 new the employment of 52000 people. Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo) economists say: "I still on employment level from 200000 to 250000 is ascension skeptical." Although the number of jobs from late in the summer of 2011 have been rising, the job market is still not from out of recession. American jobs less than four years ago, in 5.6 million. In January,NBA hats the official unemployment for 12.76 million, including 5.5 million unemployed for more than six months. This compared with December almost no improvement. On the other hand, if the data includes those who can't find a full-time job and can only part-time labor, 1 month for its latest unemployment gave up searching for work and up to 15.1%. This so-called U6 unemployment rate is the December 2011 15.2% declined slightly. To make the unemployment rate down to the level before the economic crisis, the United States still need to keep adding 250000 jobs per month for several years. In the seven years before the recession, the jobless rate is at 3.8% to 6.2% of the level fluctuations.

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According to the exchange rate of RMB war played up

A global currency war seems to be launched, main battlefield, of course, is the value of the yuan. Following the September 24, the United States house of representatives ways and means committee through the exchange rate reform to promote fair trade act in less than one week after, September 29,, the house of representatives in a disciplined by a vote of 348 to 79 of the overwhelming the results through the law. This is a main aimed at China lost beauty impose punitive tariffs on goods bill,NHL Jerseys needless to say, if the bill was eventually through, will in the two world between the first and second economy caused a "nuclear weapons grade" trade war, and then to is slow and difficult in the revival of the whole world economy caused by a series of uncounted devastating blow. This is the media recently the deluge of about "exchange rate war" reports the main background, is also analyzed the basic point of many comments. But, from the internal recent political game signal to see, the severe, but for the exchange rate of RMB and ensuing war inevitable will trade war may still is only a potential, rather than the sword has drawn. First, the house of representatives passed legislation allowing the only authorized (rather than forced) the United States government to "undervalued currency country" punitive duties on high; Second, the bill would also shall obtain approval of the senate, and finally by President Obama to be formally signed the law, and that the two ways of across the threshold outlook is not so do-or-die. Because the senate is unlikely in the midterm elections to vote before it and, according to the poll, on November 2, days at the mid-term elections, always support free trade republican will rend the most seats from the Democrats. Now even can't assert in mid-term elections after lawmakers together again, whether or not the senate still have the chance to vote on the bill. The bad news is, on September 29 vote in the house, bill won two joint support the party. The New York times reports of 29 points out, in republican Congressman rarely on the economy with democratic Congressman right now, there are 99 republican senator (accounted for the party members most) voted to support the bill, this is "very unusual". "That highlights the U.S. lawmakers about China's trade practices have long the hair-trigger disappointed, that they face the mid-term elections to the us recovery and will still shambling sensitive." This is also for over ten years the United States senate has repeatedly threatened after threat, according to one of China's powerful trade sanctions bill through congress for the first time. In fact, compared with the New York democratic senator chuck? Schumer and south Carolina republican senator Lin plug? Graham for many years in the senate advocacy proposal, the house of representatives recently passed legislation to narrow the range, strength also ease many. Their proposal is: for all Chinese imports fully 27.5% across-the-board levy--this apparent violation of the world trade organization (WTO) regulation, congress usually don't take the risk. And if the November mid-term elections republicans control the house again and even so, according to media reports, Michigan republican senator David? Kemp as supervision of the ways and means committee such affairs of the President. Although kemp 29 September to the house of representatives voted for the bill, but he has made it clear that, the exchange rate is not a priority for the legislation he the list, so the proposal is likely to finally dropped. Besides, even many Democrats, they played the RMB exchange rate card, the true goal but is for mid-term elections for votes, once the election over, it's hard to say they will continue to keep long-term interest in this. So, the conservative American traditional foundation, a researcher think: "it seems we from real legislation and a step closer, but in fact are not." Ten thousand steps back, said even if it in the United States all the way through, but if the content and the world trade organization conflict of laws and regulations, the real implementation is likely to rise by considerable constraints. So far, Obama has the government did not express support the bill mean. The White House is on October 7, vaguely said, the house of representatives passed the bill "reveal the United States are the two parties of China's exchange rate position worried." On the day of the regular news briefing, the White House press secretary gibbs said, the U.S. government still think China must take action and reassure international society to its deliberately undervalued exchange rate to jumpstart export concerns. Nevertheless, he "if the bill passed by the senate,MLB hats Obama for President will be no sign that the effective" this core problem refused to comment. For a long time now, China's domestic general public opinion is that the United States administration and the legislature in the RMB exchange rate is on the conscious duet. But understand the U.S. political system should be very clear, even if is really "coaxes the White House, congress, coerces", also can only be a tacit understanding, such as China may not be conscious "unified caliber, coordination combat". Therefore, from the point of view of the political reality comprehensive evaluation, we can conclude that the general conclusion: the bill became strong enough of the real, the most realistic function, is to provide for the White House and a pressure on China's tools. In fact, before the finance minister cover Turner have tried to use the power of congress to Chinese government pressure to let its currency rise; The speaker of the house, pelosi has said publicly, this bill will increase in China's negotiations with Obama when chip. Of course, even so, we also can't potential "exchange rate war" lightly, especially in more and more countries started to intervene in their exchange rates, a kind of our policy of filled with loving atmosphere diffuses the world under the grim situation.

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Why miss al Rio?

Arrived in Canberra, and sword fly rendezvous. Sword fly is Beijing-Shanghai-Sydney-Canberra, more than I struggle. The way to read "The Big Fella," Rio deal last year to al failed to understand seem close a layer. The original BHP since 2002 plan Rio tinto, the strategic goal has not changed, just time. In 2003, South Africa Billiton from BHP CEOGilbertson decided to impact this goal, but his strong cause hands-on the chairman Don Argus and other Australian director antipathy. Why then BHP board of directors do not agree with? The core of, is also the reason mesa, BHP Billiton and is just after merger, need time integration. In addition, each director from the interests strictly,New Era Hats merger and there is always the risk, the risk is value? Whether the merger will bring his own position of down? In short, the power shortage. Five, six years later, stirred into the al QingQiu love to hate. He used-then BHP CEO MariusKloppers a wonderful opportunity to convince the board of the directors. Rio tinto of course also happy to someone into the bureau to help it increase social status. Knowing that the goal is not DonArgus al BHP billiton, but from the start, suggests that the Chinese people to Australia to rob us of the headquarters in Australia. He a pair of YouGuoYouMin posture effectively incited the fear of australians, and incite fear is always the best lobbying strategy-he certainly embarrassed to say, I be not great because a third party to grab my lover. From this perspective, al failure is normal,NBA Jerseys whatever it's pr and lobbying to do much good, will lose. Then the Australian government put forward "nationalinterest" standard, media attention was focused on the Firb attitude. The so-called standard to the interests of the state, if not a cover, also just a specious concept. Because in BHP the mining industry bigwigs and full of strong skills of lobbying, the rudd government has be moral kidnapping, very passive. So don't criticize China aluminum stupid, is we have this system, the history, the present stage is to use a distortion. The challenge for the but again failed-such as FuChengYu, such as XiaoYaQing-or is worth respecting.

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